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Offensive numbers have dropped so dramatically league-wide – in 2014, thirteen MLB hitters have an OPS over. But how quickly The Year of the Pitcher became simply The Norm.
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“He’s off the juice” has been one of many convenient go-to explanations (It’s the shift! It’s the cutter! Christ, remember when there were articles blaming the cutter?) from every columnist for every production drop in recent memory, whether it be an individual player or the entire league.
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Braun’s positive accomplishments, however, have gone mostly unrecognized his lone bit of significant press being Buster Olney’s analyses of his increasing at-bats per home run and percentage of hits to the opposite field – chalk it up to ‘roids, sez Buster, despite the nagging injuries (two years’ worth) and the slump (to which a steroid correlation is impossible to draw, unless I guess you just really want to).įor a long time this season, the easy answer as to Braun’s performative declination has been steroids, which toes the league-wide line that Braun was and is a villain. Yet it is still Lucroy who is getting all the press, with top billing on as recently as Wednesday. 284 at the midway point of the season on June 26 th to over. 330+ batting average was rather unsustainable – Braun’s have erupted, launching a batting average that sat at. As Lucroy’s numbers have fallen a bit back down to earth – his.
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Ryan Braun, of all people – steroid-abusing, dirty rotten cheating, fraudulent Ryan Braun – is very quietly having an outstanding offensive season, especially in the second half of the baseball calendar. 900+ OPS is not out of the question and, barring another slump, seems perhaps likely. His batting average, slugging percentage, on base percentage, and OPS will all likely further raise themselves by the end of the season a. 400 during his current 12-game hitting streak, his home run numbers back on a career-average trend. His upward trend, however, is explosive, with a batting average over. 163 over 43 at-bats, in all likelihood a result of his time on the disabled list, a thumb injury sapping his power and bat speed. This is in spite of the majestic slump our masked man experienced at one point earlier this year, during which he hit a miserable. Last season in the National League ranks, those numbers would have ranked 4 th, 2 nd, 2 nd, and 6 th respectively, and would have each categorically surpassed those of NL MVP Andrew McCutcheon (as would SLG). 27 home runs (our stranger once hit just 25 in a season, in 2010), 116 RBI, 188 hits, 99 runs scored. If we are to further extrapolate his numbers over a 155-game span – generally speaking the amount of games he has historically logged per season – the numbers leap. Sabermetrics most certainly favor player 1, especially in runs created, offensive win percentage, and adjusted batting runs.īut in terms of hard stats, player 2 is having by all accounts a marvelous season. I’m not including defensive numbers in this comparison – it’s hard to compare defensive statistics across multiple positions – but player 1 has a decidedly higher dWAR (2.5) than player 2 (0.5), while player 2 plays at a much more marginal defensive position. Player 2 is also a 75% base stealer, though he only has 9 for the season. Extrapolated over 95 games, player 2’s hit total jumps to 115 (same as player 1) and his advantages in homers, RBI, and runs become even more pronounced: 17, 71 (theoretically tied for 7 th in baseball), and 60 (11 th) respectively. Furthermore, bear in mind the difference in games played. There is a negligible difference between the two in OPS and OPS+. I’m not necessarily including WAR in the comparison because I find it to be a dubious and overly theoretical statistic but for the sake of completeness, player 1 has a 4.1 oWAR and player 2 has an oWAR of 2.5, a decided advantage to player 1.) Player 2 however has advantages in many other stats: slugging (10 th in MLB in fact), home runs, RBI, runs (admittedly a number influenced as much by the performance of other hitters as his own), BAbip, ISO. (Explanations for advances stats can be found at the wonderful resource that is. Player 1 has decided advantages in BA, OBP (naturally), hits, runs created, offensive win percentage, and adjusted batting runs. 234 ISOĪs you can see in this anonymous competition, there is a bit of a trade-off taking place. Ryan Braun is defying conventional wisdom and MLB should be scaredĪ couple of stat lines for you to consider: